Over the past two years, global trade tensions have increased significantly, with the administration of Donald Trump imposing a series of tariffs on a wide range of imported products, including those from the European Union and China. Washington’s stated goal is to rebalance bilateral trade deficits and protect domestic industry, but the repercussions extend far beyond political alignments and large-scale trade figures. (Source: Euronews)

An invisible but essential sector

The Italian paint industry is a key component of manufacturing: closely connected to construction, automotive, design, and many industrial supply chains. Its effectiveness depends on the import of raw materials, most notably titanium dioxide (TiO₂), an essential pigment for achieving whiteness, opacity, and durability in products. (Source: Trade and Economic Security)

Tariff framework in 2025–26

In 2025, the U.S. government issued an executive order applying minimum tariffs of 10% on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: around 20% for the EU and 34% for China, in addition to tariffs already in place on other products. These tariffs are part of a system of “reciprocal tariffs” based on differences between the tariffs other countries apply to the United States and those imposed by Washington.

Responses and negotiations

The European Union has stated that it will respond with countermeasures against tariffs it considers “unlawful or counterproductive,” particularly on steel and aluminum, and expressed concern about the economic impact on integrated EU–US supply chains. Meanwhile, a Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement between the EU and the U.S. has been proposed to stabilize trade: a preliminary negotiation framework aiming to reduce some tariff barriers and prevent escalation, though talks are ongoing. (Source: Euronews)

Chinese trade surplus: tariffs don’t stop growth

Despite new U.S. tariffs, China closed 2025 with a record trade surplus of around $1.2 trillion, thanks to increased exports to other global partners. This indicates that U.S. protectionist measures have not drastically reduced China’s overall export performance. (Source: Euronews)

What this means for paints and raw materials

TiO₂ dumping and EU countermeasures

The European Commission has imposed anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide imports from China to protect EU producers from non-market pricing practices.

Prices and availability of raw materials

The global TiO₂ market remains under pressure due to supply and demand issues, with strong demand signals from the construction and industrial sectors. (Source: Chemanalyst)

Even if not all U.S. tariffs directly affect TiO₂, ongoing turbulence in global raw material markets and transport can translate into higher costs for the paint industry. (Source: Alchempro)

How much could prices rise?

TiO₂ can represent a significant share of raw material costs in paints (sometimes over 30–40%, depending on the formulation). With trade tariffs and supply challenges, production cost increases of 5%–15% are plausible, depending on the supply chain and market dynamics. Sector analyses show that tariffs on imported chemical products can increase raw material production costs by 8%–25%, affecting delivery times and stock availability.

Conclusions: an industrial strategy is needed

Global trade tensions — though variable and partly negotiable — have a real impact on Italian SMEs in the paint sector, often with slim margins and high dependency on foreign inputs. Even if not all tariff threats have been implemented or are final, the situation requires a strategic response at both the European and company level:

• Common and diversified procurement policies

• Promotion of innovation and productivity

• Stock management and short supply chains to reduce exposure to tariff fluctuations

• Alternative export markets